4 Predictions for 2016 Everyone In The Industry Should Be Thinking

I had a few conversations about what’s going to happen in 2016. It’s easy to tell the future 10 years from now. It’s hard to tell the future for a single year.

Here they are. Hold me to it at the end of the year.

1) Will Google and a Detroit car company unveil a new autonomous car model? Yes.

There are alliances forming between Detroit and tech companies. Ford and Google have announced a few things. GM and Lyft have gotten into bed together.

Yahoo Autos reports that Ford and Google are creating an independent joint venture, a structure that protects Google and Ford from potential liability, to produce self-driving cars. It’s said to be part of a non-exclusive deal, meaning that Google could partner with other automakers as well.

You know how Android OS is on a variety of phones? We’ll see the same thing with GM, Ford, Chrysler, and Toyota with an “Autonomous Driving” OS.

Google’s not a car company. The supply chain for building a car is complex. Leave that to the car companies. Google is a machine learning company.

Cameras on all cars mean they’ll have real-time street view and traffic data. And whatever creepy shit they put on them. -Eric Jorgenson

And the more cars they get their Autonomous Driving OS in, the more data they’ll have to make it work. Lots of data makes it possible for the car to navigate in the snow and rain.

Sidenote: I think the Google pods are cute but no one will buy them.

2) Will Bitcoin become mainstream? No.

I go back and forth thinking about Bitcoin’s use in e-commerce. A lot of people are in a buy and hold pattern. I’m actually fine just using a credit card to buy things online. Others have as well. I think it’s a solution looking for a problem right now.

I’m long on the blockchain in general. Institutions seem to be picking up on this for their own internal use. Goldman Sachs is pushing hard on this front.

Maybe next year for Bitcoin.

3) Will the Apple Watch get a must-have app? No.

I use my Apple Watch most days. I forget it on other days. Outside of notifications, I don’t use any third-party apps much. It’s not a glance in the winter: I dig through several layers of sleeves to see my watch.

Mobile is a critical extension for data viewing and modest data entry. The watch is for even less data viewing and no data entry.

Fitbit sees huge churn because people don’t track fitness for the most part. And they don’t want to know how they don’t exercise. And by “they” I mean “me.” And by “people don’t track fitness” I mean “me” again.

All wearables will see a decline in active usage this year. The killer app is going to be a SaaS service that uses the activity data in the healthcare space and the traditional athletic tracking use case.

All wearables will see a decline in active usage this year.

Sidenote: Wearables need new “why do I feel terrible on some days and not other days” sensors. Maybe something around insulin spikes or blood sugar that can say, “Oh it’s because you ate 7 pizzas yesterday.”

I knew I should have stuck to 6 slices.

4) How many early-stage companies will get seed funding? Not a lot.

The past few years have seen a lot of high valuations and seed funding. We’ll see less of this from the top-tier investors. Laggard investors won’t catch on until later this year.

Companies now know the importance of active usage, data-driven decisions, and charging for it. Customers are getting good at recognizing value and paying for it. Because of this, VCs will value more concrete proof points when investing even at a seed stage.

We’ll see a growing percentage of bootstrapped companies. They’ll focus on acquiring customers and product market fit before seeking investment.

Thanks for the inspiration: Blake Robbins, Eric Jorgenson, Hiten Shah, Fred Wilson, Semil Shah, Richelle Ross, Jason Calacanis, Jason Lemkin